What to Watch at the Sept 17th FOMC (and Why It Matters for Crypto)
Everything you need to know explained in 5 minutes.
Hey! Kim here.
The next big macro event for crypto traders is just around the corner: the FOMC on Sept 17th, 2025.
A few years ago you might’ve been able to ignore this stuff. Not anymore. Trading blind to what the Fed is doing means you’re missing one of the strongest drivers of liquidity, and liquidity is what fuels crypto.
Here’s what’s going on 👇
🔹 What the Market Expects
Current Fed Funds Rate: 4.25–4.50%
93% chance of landing at 4.00–4.25% (25 bps cut)
7% chance of landing at 3.75–4.00% (50 bps cut)
Source: CME FedWatch Tool
Translation: A rate cut is fully priced in. The real question is the size.
🔹 How Expectations Have Shifted
Source: CME FedWatch Tool
One month ago:
92% odds of a 25 bps cut
8% odds of no change
Today:
93% odds of a 25 bps cut
7% odds of a 50 bps cut
In short: the “no cut” camp has disappeared. Better inflation data + a stabilizing macro backdrop have investors more confident that the Fed can ease without losing control.
And easing = more liquidity = historically bullish for crypto.
🔹 Why the Decision Alone Isn’t Enough
Even if the Fed cuts rates, that’s just Step 1.
Two other pieces matter just as much:
The Chair’s Speech
Dovish language (“we can keep cutting, liquidity is coming”) → bullish
Hawkish language (“inflation risk remains, this cut is one-off”) → bearish
The Q&A
Live questions can swing markets in minutes.
Example: If Powell hints at stricter crypto regulation, it could erase bullish sentiment instantly, even after a rate cut.
🔹 The 3 Things You Need to Watch
Rate decision → a cut is bullish
Chair’s speech → dovish = bullish
Q&A session → neutral or positive on crypto is best
For a clear positive market reaction, all three need to align. If even one is hawkish, the upside can vanish. That’s why traders sometimes complain: “Why didn’t BTC pump after the cut?” → this is often the reason.
🔹 How to Approach It as a Trader
Watch live (usually 2pm ET on YouTube)
Decide in advance: trade the event, or stay flat for that volatile hour
Either way, treat it as a learning opportunity. Track how each element (cut, speech, Q&A) affects BTC and ETH. That playbook will be gold for the next Fed meeting.
Bottom line: The Sept 17th FOMC isn’t just about the rate cut. It’s about the full picture: the decision, the tone, and the Q&A. Get all three right, and you’ll understand the flows driving crypto in real time.
Until next time,
KimTalksCrypto
Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.
I vote bullish. Hope I’m right 🤝